All 32 remaining College Football Playoff contenders, tiered
College football’s Selection Sunday is just a shade under a month away, on Dec. 6. Many, many people will offer you projected brackets between now and then, fulfilling the pointless human lust for brackets that get blown to smithereens just a few days after they’re released.
Ahead of the year’s second rankings release on Tuesday night, I’m here offering you a better way to think about the playoff: Tiers! This is a broad breakdown of how every team that’s still in the playoff hunt — there are 32, by my count, for 12 spots — slots into the national picture. Let’s begin at the top.
Note: Ahead of the committee’s ranking release on Tuesday night, I’m using each team’s current AP Poll rank to give you a sense of where they stand. The AP Poll and committee rankings aren’t exact matches.
SEE YOU IN DECEMBER
No. 1 Georgia (8-1)
No. 2 Utah (9-0)
No. 3 Notre Dame (8-1)
No. 5 Miami (8-1)
Everyone here makes the field unless something shocking happens. Georgia has a couple tough games coming up against Missouri and South Carolina but would need to lose both to create any playoff drama. Utah has a hard game at Arizona this weekend but then plays two mediocrities, TCU and West Virginia, to close. The Utes would have to lose twice to be at risk, and even then, they might make it. After beating Miami, Notre Dame has a good enough resume that even an extremely surprising home loss to SMU on Nov. 21 might not keep them out. And the Hurricanes, despite taking that loss in South Bend, have a clear path to 10 or 11 wins plus the ACC Championship. The Canes need Malachi Toney back healthy, though. Their offense doesn’t work right without the easy-access throws and yards after the catch he provides.
IN VERY GOOD POSITION
No. 6 Indiana (8-1)
No. 7 Alabama (7-2)
No. 8 Texas (7-2)
The committee had Indiana at No. 4 last week and won’t drop them below No. 6, their current AP spot, when new playoff rankings drop on Tuesday. The Hoosiers have a tough game against USC this weekend but would probably still have a playoff resume if they lost that game. Just don’t follow that up with a clunker at Washington or against Purdue, the rival IU now destroys every year.
The committee already loved Alabama, putting the Tide at No. 5 last week, and will love them more after a win at LSU. The Tide are unlikely to lose to Vanderbilt or Auburn (or, needless to say, FCS Chattanooga). And even if they did lose one more, they would vault to the top of the list of three-loss candidates.
Texas could absolutely lose a third game, but the Longhorns are so loaded up with top-25 wins (three and counting) that going down to one of LSU or Texas A&M would not automatically doom them.
CONTROLLING THEIR FATE, BUT SWEATING
No. 4 UCLA (9-0)
No. 9 Tennessee (7-2)
No. 10 Texas Tech (8-1)
No. 11 Wake Forest (8-1)
No. 15 USC (7-2)
The Bruins will probably pay a small penalty for having a backup QB behind center for the rest of the season, no matter how many wins Ty Dieffenbach racks up between now and Selection Sunday. If they win two of their last three (Illinois, at Michigan, USC), I think they’ll have a spot locked up as they head into the Big Ten Championship. If they lose two games, they’ll be a bubble team. And all three of the teams they still have to face, even the offensively inept Michigan, could beat them.
Tennessee is win-and-in but still has to play at Texas A&M, against LSU, and at Vanderbilt (in what’s usually an extremely orange stadium in Nashville). Nothing there is a cakewalk, no matter how bad the Aggies and Commodores are this season. Texas Tech would lock up a spot by winning 11 regular-season games but is no more than a tossup to beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater this weekend. A trip to Baylor to face a team playing well under interim coach Joe Klanderman could be hard, too.
Wake Forest is in a unique spot, with no notable wins but just one loss (to Miami). Winning out feels impossible but would do the job. What if Wake went 11-2, with two Miami losses? I think that would leave the Demon Deacons just outside the field, similar to last year’s BYU team that went 11-2 with a pair of boring losses to Texas Tech. But the Deacs might have a look if things got weird around them.
USC is well outside the field at the moment, but a 3-0 finish to get to 10-2 would mean wins against both Indiana and UCLA. There would be no doubt of a Trojans playoff berth if they could do it. (More likely, a loss at Indiana on Saturday will all but extinguish USC’s hopes.)
NEEDING HELP, BUT IN THE THICK OF IT
No. 12 BYU (7-2)
No. 13 Kentucky (7-2)
No. 14 Houston (7-2)
No. 16 Iowa (7-2)
No. 22 Arizona (7-2)
BYU is outside the field and out of chances to secure differentiating wins. They also aren’t a Big Ten or SEC team, which (sadly) counts against them if there’s a glut of two-loss options. But they do have a great win in their back pocket, having beaten an ascendant Notre Dame.
The committee seems to like Kentucky, having slotted the Wildcats at No. 6 before they lost to Tennessee. I think they’d be in trouble if they took a third loss, but wins over Florida, Missouri, and Louisville should get the job done. Houston and Arizona need a lot of help, mainly in the form of somehow landing a Big 12 Championship berth in a race that includes five other teams to varying degrees.
Iowa has a similar issue. The Hawkeyes’ best win is over Wisconsin or Northwestern. At best, Iowa will have one fringy top-25 win on Selection Sunday. I usually think that 10-2 Big Ten or SEC teams with healthy QBs are close to locks, but this particular Iowa team might have a harder time.
IN A BETTER SPOT THAN YOU THINK
No. 24 LSU (6-3)
The Tigers are 0-3 against top-25 teams. Lane Kiffin is poised to let a $50 million team go to waste after one of the most hyped-up offseasons of all time. But winning out would mean beating Texas and then Tennessee (plus taking care of business against Arkansas), and that would give the Tigers a pair of high-quality wins they currently lack. I’m not sure LSU controls its own destiny, but I think the Tigers will be more than a long shot if they can flip a switch in the final three weeks. That’s yet another big “if.”
IN THREE-LOSS TROUBLE
No. 18 Oregon (6-3)
No. 19 Ole Miss (6-3)
No. 20 South Carolina (6-3)
No. 21 Ohio State (6-3)
These three-loss teams are all ranked higher than LSU for the moment but lack the same runway to improve from here. Oregon doesn’t play a good team the rest of the way (Michigan, at Michigan State, Washington). Ole Miss doesn’t either, as beating 5-4 Oklahoma would make it impractical for the Sooners to reach the top 25 and become a noteworthy win. Ohio State is out of big-time win opportunities as well.
South Carolina has one more significant piece on the board: a home game against Georgia in two weeks. The Gamecocks will be heavy underdogs, and it’s not clear that an upset would get them into the top 11. But Shane Beamer’s team has the chance to at least make things interesting.
THE GROUP OF 6 RACE
No. 17 Boise State (8-1)
No. 23 New Mexico (8-1)
Liberty (8-1)
North Texas (7-2)
Memphis (7-2)
UTSA (7-2)
Louisiana Tech (7-2)
The committee slotted Boise at 25th last week and should move them up a spot or two on Tuesday, even if not as high as the AP voters slot the Broncos now. The non-power playoff spot is the Broncos’ to lose. It would be helpful if the committee could rank New Mexico or Liberty (ideally New Mexico) on Tuesday to provide a confirmed sense of where the rest of the race stands. If Boise stumbles against Oregon State, the Lobos are the best-positioned team to catch up. The three two-loss teams in the American would only have a chance if things got outrageous elsewhere, but I don’t think it would be right to consider them all the way out yet. The same is true of Louisiana Tech, which is cruising in its first year in the Sun Belt.
If you want to just ignore everyone here except Boise and New Mexico, that’s fine.
HANGING AROUND THE ACC RACE
No. 25 SMU (7-2)
Duke (7-2)
Louisville (6-3)
Nobody here is dead yet, because someone has to play Miami in the ACC Championship. If the Mustangs can beat Wake Forest this week, there’s a real chance that will be them. Duke (winners of the ACC last year with a crisp five losses) and Louisville (a good team that farted away three early-season games on a variety of mental errors) both remain in this mix too. Give these teams a quadbox spot in Week 11.
