11 true Super Bowl contenders, and their biggest question
We have reached the midway point of the 2026 NFL season.
And it is time to look at some true Super Bowl contenders.
These are the teams in both the AFC and the NFC that, at least right now, look like true contenders for a title. Could a team not on this list make a run? Absolutely, that is the nature of sports. But right now, these are the 11 teams you could make a case for.
Along with the biggest question they will need to answer over the second half of the season.
AFC Super Bowl contenders
Jacksonville Jaguars
Through the first half of the NFL season, the Jacksonville Jaguars have put themselves among the league’s elite. They lead the way with a point differential of +108 (the only team above 100) and also lead the NFL in turnover differential. Trevor Lawrence is playing like an MVP candidate, and a defense that was good — Jacksonville currently ranks third in Defensive EPA/Play — added a ton of talent ahead of the NFL’s trade deadline.
Biggest question: Can the additions put this team over the top?
Jacksonville looked like Super Bowl contenders ahead of the NFL trade deadline, so it is no surprise that general manager James Gladstone was aggressive in acquiring players like Jordan Davis, Jessie Bates III, and Davon Godchaux. Can those additions truly propel Jacksonville to the Super Bowl?
Buffalo Bills
While the Jacksonville Jaguars grabbed the headlines this week, the Buffalo Bills kept chugging along. Josh Allen and company went into Minnesota and beat the Vikings on “Monday Night Football,” improving to 7-1 on the season and keeping themselves atop the AFC standings.
It is easy to simply say that as long as the Bills have Allen, they have a shot. But with James Cook in the backfield and Keon Coleman emerging as something more in the passing game, Buffalo certainly has the offense to contend.
Biggest question: Can the defense step up?
But the defense remains a big question mark. This group looked good on Monday night, but that came at the expense of what we saw from Carson Wentz. Can Buffalo’s defense deliver down the stretch?
Hopefully for Bills fans, Amani Hooker is the answer.
Cincinnati Bengals
A similar case can be made for the Cincinnati Bengals.
Cincinnati certainly has an offense they can rely upon down the stretch. Joe Burrow is playing at an elite level (he is tied for third in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt with a mark of 8.0), the duo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins put pressure on every defensive secondary they face, and Chase Brown gives Cincinnati a option in the ground game. Right now the Bengals are averaging 0.146 Expected Points Added per Play, behind only the San Francisco 49ers.
That is an offense you can win with.
Biggest question: Can the defense step up?
Stop me if you have heard this before, but the question in Cincinnati centers on the defense.
While this group got out to a decent start, including holding Houston to just six points in a Week 2 win, giving up 36 points to Tennessee two weeks ago is a concerning data point.
Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos are a fascinating team.
Looking at Denver through an EPA lens, you see a team that is more “league average” than Super Bowl contender. Denver’s talented defense is actually a below-average unit against the pass (when examining EPA/dropback) and the offense is right in the middle of the pack:
And yet there they are at 7-2, at the top of the AFC standings behind only Buffalo. And Denver has two impressive wins on the resume, home victories against both Jacksonville and Kansas City.
While a game against Buffalo on Christmas Day looms large, at the moment they look like contenders.
Biggest question: Bo Nix?
This is the biggest question, right? Is Bo Nix the quarterback Broncos fans believe he is?
If so, this team can make a deep run. If not …
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes is back and healthy, at least relatively speaking. Most years that would be enough to mark the Kansas City Chiefs down as Super Bowl contenders. But Kansas City also has stepped up their rushing offense, thanks in large part to the acquisition of Kenneth Walker III last spring, and if you look at the above graphic highlighting offensive efficiency, you’ll find the Chiefs among the league’s best run games.
But yet, something does feel like it is missing with Kansas City this year.
Biggest question: Where will the explosive plays come from?
We were tempted to put kicker here but …
While the Chiefs have one of the most explosive run games in the league — Kansas City has seven runs of 20 yards or more, ranking them fifth in the NFL — they have just 22 such passing plays, putting them near the bottom of the league. Can they find explosives in the passing game down the stretch?
Pittsburgh Steelers
Another fascinating team? The Pittsburgh Steelers.
If this were the 1970s, you might consider the Steelers at the top of lists like this one. Pittsburgh has an impressive running game (the Steelers lead the NFL with EPA/rush of 0.097, one of just two teams with a positive number in that category) and a defense that is among the best in the league. The Steelers are sixth in the NFL in EPA/play on defense, and fifth in the league in scoring defense.
But the passing game, that is another story. And since we are not in the 1970s …
Biggest question: Can they get enough from the passing game?
Again, looking at EPA/dropback, the Steelers have some questions to answer in the passing game. Pittsburgh averages -0.069 Expected Points Added per dropback, the seventh-lowest mark in the league.
NFC Super Bowl contenders
San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers just keep chugging along.
Despite an injured list that is as long as the NFL offseason, the 49ers remain at the top of the NFC standings and show no signs of slowing down. San Francisco’s Week 8 blip against the Atlanta Falcons aside, the 49ers have the inside track to a division title, and their eyes squarely set on the top spot in the NFC.
Biggest question: What makes this San Francisco team different?
We have seen this before from San Francisco. A team that wins 12 or more games in the regular season, but falls short in the playoffs. Is there something that will make it different this year? Another year of Brock Purdy? The rest of the conference facing even bigger questions? What will be the difference for San Francisco in 2026?
Maybe the return of Brandon Aiyuk will help …
Chicago Bears
If the NFL playoffs began today, the Chicago Bears would be in as the winners of the NFC North, and one of four teams from the division in the dance.
The reasons to believe in the Bears start on the offensive side of the ball. Caleb Williams has put himself in the MVP mix, and while the four interceptions Monday night against Tampa Bay dealt a blow to those chances, he gives the Bears a way to win every Sunday. And in Ben Johnson’s hands, this offense is a problem for most defenses.
Biggest question: Is Jeffery Simmons exactly what the Bears needed?
The questions in Chicago the past few months have focused on the defense. But with the trade for Jeffery Simmons, this group has taken a big step forward. Simmons paid immediate dividends against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 8, and if the defense continues to improve around him down the stretch, this could be a very tough team to beat.
Detroit Lions
As far as offenses go, the Detroit Lions check a lot of boxes. Jared Goff sits fifth in ANY/A among qualified passers, Jahmyr Gibbs is one of the most explosive players in the league, and looking at EPA, the Lions offense is right where you want to be: Above league average in both EPA/dropback and EPA/rushing attempt.
The question in Detroit, like we have seen with some other teams, comes on the defensive side of the football. The Lions have struggled on defense this season, but that unit is trending in the right direction. The Lions have won four straight games, with the defense holding opponents to under 17 points in each of the last three wins. That includes holding Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers to just 17 points back in Week 7. And with Brian Branch expected to return soon, this defense could be getting better at just the right time.
Biggest question: Has the defense turned a corner?
This is a defense that gave up 30 points to the New Orleans Saints in Week 1, 41 points to the Buffalo Bills in Week 2, 24 points to the New York Jets — THE JETS — in Week 3 and 32 points to the Carolina Panthers in Week 4.
But the trend is their friend.
Green Bay Packers
There is a strong case to be made that Jordan Love is the midseason MVP.
In fact, our own Jarrett Bailey made that case on Tuesday.
Yet, something else could help this team down the stretch, and that is the impending return of Micah Parsons. The pass rusher returned to practice last week, and if he is available over the rest of the season, that could turn what has been a average defense into much, much better to close out the year.
Biggest question: What about the offensive line?
We thought Green Bay fixed the offensive line a few weeks ago, but that unit has struggled the past few weeks. Can Matt LaFleur and company find the right combination for the stretch run?
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings actually fell off this list Tuesday morning.
But they were back on it Tuesday afternoon.
Why? The trade for Kirk Cousins. Suddenly an offense that looked awful looked, at least on paper, less so. Will it be enough to save the season in Minnesota?
With the defense Brian Flores is running out there, it just might be.
Biggest question: Is Kirk Cousins the answer?
There is a strong case to be made that Carson Wentz’s performance against the Buffalo Bills on Monday night was the worst outing by a Vikings quarterback in franchise history.
If Cousins is just league average down the stretch — or even just slightly below average — that could be enough for Minnesota.
